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A construction expert says customers could soon face price hikes of 25%.

Stats NZ data shows petrol prices rose almost 19% last month, while diesel prices were up almost 43%.

AUT Professor John Tookey says the industry heavily relies on oil for producing and transporting materials.

He says the destruction of oil wells and processing facilities in the Middle East could take years or decades to rebuild.

Tookey says, if it continues, there will be major problems which could become the new normal.

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In my opinion, National MPs need to bite the bullet and ask Chris Luxon to step aside.

I don’t enjoy saying this because personally I like Chris Luxon and have a fair amount of respect for him. But I think the chances are now very high that this is going to happen before the election. He is going to lose the leadership and perhaps the only real choice National MPs now have is how messy they allow this to become.

I’ll explain why I think he loses the leadership — and I think it’s simple maths.

National’s polling is really poor. It’s sub-30 in multiple polls. You can’t write those off as rogue results. The numbers are consistently bad and at that level the party is on track to lose around 11 MPs in November. Those 11 MPs do not want to lose their jobs and within that group are the people now agitating for a change of leadership.

For that agitation to stop, National’s polling would need to lift enough to save at least some of those MPs’ seats.
So how does the polling improve? The economy would have to improve. And is that going to happen between now and November? No, it’s not.

In fact, the economy is more likely to come under further pressure, particularly because of the situation in Iran and rising fuel costs. The most likely scenario is that the economy gets worse, National’s polling deteriorates further, and those 11 MPs — and potentially more — lose their jobs at the election.

Meanwhile, the destabilising campaign we saw in the Herald today continues. Someone is deliberately and repeatedly planting stories in the media. That won’t stop. It will continue to drive the polls down and make Luxon look increasingly like a lame-duck Prime Minister.

So if we assume the economy doesn’t improve, the polling doesn’t improve and the destabilising continues, then the most likely outcome is this: about three months out from the election, in the depths of winter, the National Party loses its nerve and rolls Chris Luxon in a desperate attempt to save the furniture.

I see no realistic alternative to that outcome.

That’s scenario one: hope and pray. And yes, that is technically a strategy — maybe something miraculous happens, the way COVID saved Jacinda Ardern in 2020. But that’s hope-and-prayer stuff.

Scenario two is that they pull the pin. They replace Chris Luxon with someone else and call an early election, allowing that person to seek a mandate while still enjoying a honeymoon period — and before winter and the Iran-related pressures make voters even more miserable than they already are.

If I were in the National caucus, I’d be opting for the second scenario. Because the polling is now so consistently bad that a leadership change is likely to happen anyway before the election. They can’t avoid it — they can only choose when it happens and how messy they let it get.

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Changes to the Local Government Act could be on the way after controversy at the Far North District Council.

Councillor Diane Smolders claims a committee made-up of six councillors and 10 unelected Iwi and hapu representatives is co-governance on steroids.

Local Government Minister Simon Watts says he's looking at changes to give to cabinet.

He told Heather du Plessis-Allan that he'll have a proposal soon.

Watts says he expects it to take about a month.

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Nicola Willis has made her way to the US.

She joins a long list of finance ministers calling for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, and met with Trump's officials for an update on the situation in Iran.

She told Heather du Plessis-Allan that the Whitehouse was, 'careful to caveat that there were still a number of unknowns because they're not the only actor in the conflict.' when asked about the situation in Iran.

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'Alpine Divorce' is a new phenomenon that is common enough to exist.

Couples going on hikes or tramps reach exhaustion at different stages, leading to one person being left behind. An exhaustion which now seems to have extended to relationships.

Adrift NZ Owner and Tongariro Crossing Guide told Heather du Plessis-Allan that being under physical stress is likely to heighten tensions in strained relationships.

'When you do that, the best of the worst comes out of you.'

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A new farming advocacy group is pushing for the government only to import meat that matches New Zealand's farming standards.

'Fair for Farmers' says that overseas pig meat undermines animal welfare standards, and kiwi farmer's ability to compete.

Animal Policy International Co-Executive Director Rainer Kravets told Heather du Plessis-Allan that, 'around 60% of pork in our market comes from overseas and most of it is produced using standards that would be illegal here.'

The group has faced criticism from other farming collectives about the motives behind their cause.

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Uptake is stalling for GP's wanting to diagnose ADHD.

Two months after the Government allowed GP's to assess and prescribe medication, only 180 GP's have used the new power so far.

Other doctors blame workforce shortages and inadequate funding for the stall in uptakes.

Royal NZ College of GP's President Luke Bradford told Heather du Plessis-Allan that, 'Patients can't afford to see it. Or the doctors can't afford to give up the time to do it.'

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