If it holds, the Middle East ceasefire will boost activity in the housing market as spring gets underway, but it hasn’t removed the pressure keeping mortgage rates high. In this episode of Housing Unpacked, Tom Bill is joined by Helen Thomas, CEO of Blonde Money, to explain why borrowing costs are unlikely to snap back to mid-February levels. They explore how the conflict will create a lasting supply‑side inflation shock, why bond investors still see the UK as a risk, what that means for mortgage rates, and the competing pressures on the Bank of England. The discussion also examines whether an internal challenge or the bond market is more likely to bring Keir Starmer’s premiership to a premature end.

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In this episode, Tom and Michael Brown unpack how the Bank of England’s unexpectedly hawkish messaging last week helped ignite a sharp repricing across markets already rattled by the Middle East conflict, pushing swap rates up by nearly a full percentage point, and exposing the UK’s fragile fiscal backdrop. They explore why the Bank may be fighting the wrong inflation battle and what this means for borrowers weighing two‑ versus five‑year fixes, and why both housing market activity and policy decisions are now hostage to fast‑shifting geopolitical and energy‑price risks.

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Tom Bill talks to James Nation on Tuesday 10 March about how the fast‑moving conflict in the Middle East is reshaping UK politics, the inflation landscape, and the housing market. James draws parallels with the 2022 energy shock when he worked in the Treasury and explains how geopolitical instability complicates decisions for the Chancellor and the Bank of England. They discuss the risks to fiscal headroom, the unpredictability of mortgage rates, and the different political and economic scenarios that may play out depending on how long the disruption lasts. The conversation also explores the pressures facing the government ahead of this year’s autumn Budget, the implications for housing policy, and what the coming months may mean for Keir Starmer following Labour’s defeat in the recent Gorton and Denton by-election.

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