The Math Has Improved But The Sentiment Hasn't

• February 2026 home sales were 8.1% below last year — the weakest comparable data since the 2009 financial crisis — despite improving affordability, as tariff fears, job losses, and rising delinquencies keep buyers on the sidelines
• Canada lost 83,900 jobs in February and mortgage arrears are climbing, with Toronto and Vancouver facing the highest projected delinquency risk as softer prices, weaker resale liquidity, and a shakier labour market all hit at once
• The national average is masking a country moving in opposite directions: Toronto's benchmark price is down 7.9% year over year while Quebec City is up 12.3% and Alberta stays resilient — there is no single Canadian housing market, only a national average pretending to be one

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