Markets in the Fog: War Risk, Earnings Reality, and Higher Rates

This week’s discussion centers on how geopolitical risk, shifting rate expectations, and resilient earnings are reshaping the investment landscape. With economic data light, attention turns to the Iran conflict and its uneven market impact, including higher energy prices and renewed volatility. Equity valuations have reset meaningfully even as forward earnings expectations remain firm, reframing downside risk. The panel explores why markets now price a potential rate hike instead of cuts, how that shift is pressuring bonds and housing, and where leadership may reemerge once macro uncertainty fades. The takeaway emphasizes patience, selective opportunity, and disciplined positioning amid elevated uncertainty. We invite our listeners to continue the conversation on April 1 during the Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:33 — Initial claims update and delayed economic data

02:44 — Iran conflict and the market’s muted reaction

05:35 — Earnings momentum versus falling equity multiples

11:42 — Rate expectations flip from cuts to possible hikes

19:42 — Staying disciplined as volatility creates opportunity

Additional Resources

Register Now: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path.

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