Everything Is Predictable

How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

By: Tom Chivers

Narrated by: Tom Chivers

A “fascinating, witty, and perspective-shifting” (Oliver Burkeman, New York Times bestselling author) tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author ofThe Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.

At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.

But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?

“Witty, lively, and best of all, extremely nerdy” (Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist), Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining and accessible illustration of how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.

Great explanations of apply Bayesian logic

The author makes Bayesian statistics comprehensible and then goes on to real world applications and some history as to how classical statistics sometimes yields bad science. Great listen.

The best Bayes overview for layman

Great overview of Bayes - funny and informative. Author does an excellent job narrating his own text. Highly recommend.

Bayes everywhere Now I see him!

The ending or culmination of the book is fantastic. It was presented well with a perfect reading.

didn't predict that this would be an interesting book but it was

this was a fun story. I did think that it was going to be a grind because they said it was going to be read by the author and I can't imagine the author having that good of a reading voice, but they proved me wrong. I enjoyed this book very much. enjoy listening to it and I feel like I learn from it even though I still don't fully understand Bayes Theorem. lol

Hard to listen to

Great book, forced to buy hard copy.
A companion to Bernoulli's Fallacy. Probability theory is used to control how we think, it's always a good idea to investigate why some conclude what they do.