Four Scenarios

Artificial Intelligence and its Impact on the US Navy

By: Ryan Webb

Narrated by: Virtual Voice

In "The Art of the Long View," published in 1991, Peter Schwartz presented scenario-building as a useful planning tool. First, he argued that “driving forces” move the plot of a scenario. These forces often involve developments in society, technology, economics, and politics. Next, Schwartz identified “predetermined elements,” or events that seem certain to occur. Examples include population change, resource constraints, and inevitable collisions. Third, Schwartz explored “critical uncertainties,” which are important unknown events. After identifying these three factors, scenario-builders are ready to formulate plausible future narratives. In the case of artificial intelligence (AI) in the US Navy, four scenarios are possible.