The Calm Before the Storm

Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versa

By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Gregory F. Treverton

Narrated by: Kevin Stillwell

Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

©2015 Foreign Affairs (P)2015 Audible, Inc.

Fine Taleb, but repeats some themes in other books

If you are widely read in Taleb's work, there are few surprises here. I pretty avidly snap up whatever he writes, but I had seen such things as his praise of city-states elsewhere. There seems a slight advance in his mapping of fragilities on a wider scale, compared with his prior works.

Succinct primer on the stability of nation states

5 of 5 stars.

I'll start by saying I'm a big admirer of Nassim Taleb and absorbing his writings can lead to a paradigm shift in one's thinking. Taleb's counter-intuitive thinking is outlined in this absorbing essay covering the markers for determining whether a nation state is fragile or robust. Centralized states and authority are more susceptible to collapse or revolution while countries with diverse political systems and distributed authority are much more resilient to shocks and volatility. Taleb has a knack for conveying complex concepts in an enjoyable and accessible manner.

The narrator is excellent for the material.

Short but very worthwhile

Enjoyed very much the claim that centralization serves to create less bumps in the road, while unfortunately also serving to make the fewer bumps far more extreme than would otherwise be. Also, a country that creates neighbors versus roommates will better serve society and all people groups.

Susinct, ensightful and enlightening

Loved it. It gives practical perspective in terms of anti fragility. Gave me hope for the future, in particular Lebanon. Nassim Taleb rocks!

Great

I loved it. Very well explained. Nassim at his best with risk on a global scale