The Humble Investor

How to find a winning edge in a surprising world

By: Daniel Rasmussen

Narrated by: Todd Kramer

Why just be contrarian when you can bet against consensus and be right? Through a meta-analysis of what moves markets and what drives human behavior, New York Times bestselling author and founder of Verdad Advisers, Daniel Rasmussen cuts through the 60/40 portfolio, exposing where empirical evidence shows the best opportunities—and where projections, models, and experts often fail—to create an asset allocation that can withstand the tests of time. In this exploration of intellectual truths in investing, Dan’s research shows that the investor’s edge lies in fundamentals over forecasts, humility over hubris, and demonstrated rules over dogma.

Critic reviews

In an ever-changing (and chasing) investing world, it’s a rarity to find a non-conformist and independent investing mind like Dan Rasmussen’s. He thinks for himself and built his world-class process all on his own. The Humble Investor challenges the received wisdoms of the establishment and educates you on a better way. (Keith R. McCullough)

The Humble Investor is a refreshing and much-needed departure from most investing books. Serious investors will appreciate its provocative take on the industry's challenges and its empirically-grounded approach to the solutions. An invaluable resource for how to think as well as how to invest.

This book poses a danger to conventional investment wisdom. It's provocative, even heretical.

Dan Rasmussen beautifully and clearly summarizes frontier research in finance, but also proposes many new insights for gaining an investment edge. There is a lot to learn from this book about where finance is, as well as where it is going.

A new generation of quantitative investors has arrived, and Dan Rasmussen is leading the charge! Anchored in scientific evidence, The Humble Investor provides an exciting new framework for adapting fundamental security selection strategies to different market conditions. Excessive confidence in flawed forecasts, Dan argues, is a root cause of price volatility in security markets. By embracing humility, historical analysis, diversification, and a countercyclical mindset, investors can make more informed decisions, even during market upheavals. This book offers a creative and compelling framework for integrating macro and micro analysis. Rasmussen writes with crystal clarity and his economic arguments are unimpeachable. A delightful read!