In this episode, global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz examines how investors can navigate a market increasingly shaped by conflict, shifting narratives, and wider ranges of possible outcomes. He begins with the recent escalation in the Middle East and the market's relatively measured response, then considers the second-order effects that can matter just as much as the initial shock. The conversation also explores how recent AI-driven swings in software have revealed a market increasingly influenced by thematic flows and short-term sentiment, rather than the more measured process of weighing business fundamentals. Throughout, Paul returns to a central idea: good portfolio management is rarely about one big call, but about making many small, disciplined decisions within a diversified portfolio.

Highlights:

• Why the market's reaction to the recent escalation in the Middle East has remained relatively measured so far

• John Deere as a second-order effects case study: how rising oil and fertilizer costs can affect customer economics, margins, and capital allocation

• Thematic trading and the gap between price and intrinsic value: the Centrini AI thought piece in February triggered a broad software sell-off, showing how quickly disruption narratives—not fundamentals—can dominate market pricing

• Capital intensity isn't the enemy—poor returns are. Microsoft and Amazon are pouring billions into AI infrastructure, but a key question is whether bundling compute with distribution advantages will deliver attractive returns on that capital.
• Why Paul believes the market's "voting machine" is increasingly overwhelming the "weighing machine." Markets vote on sentiment every day but building real businesses (and real wealth) takes years of focusing on fundamentals while tuning out the noise.
  
  

Host:

Rob Campbell, CFA
Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:

Paul Moroz, CFA
Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

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In this episode, U.S. equity portfolio manager Grayson Witcher explores what it means to invest exclusively in American businesses at a time when the U.S. is becoming more short‑term, more transactional, and more central to global change. He contrasts a shifting U.S. "extraction" mindset with China's longer-term industrial strategy and considers how that dynamic is reshaping globalization into a more regional, security-conscious world. The conversation then turns to portfolio implications: why the team has been reducing exposure to mature, highly penetrated software names facing intensifying competition and AI disruption, how the market's treatment of AI has evolved from hype to a more "show me the returns" phase, and where they see resilient opportunities.

Highlights:

• How a more short-term, "extraction"-oriented U.S. policy stance—via tariffs, reshoring, and industrial policy—is altering incentives for companies and trading partners.
• The evolving nature of software moats in an AI world, including higher competitive intensity, mature end markets, and why some long-term winners' valuations may no longer be justified.
• The market's transition from rewarding any AI narrative to demanding clearer evidence of economic returns on massive cloud and data-center capital spending.
• A deliberate tilt toward businesses positioned for a more regionalized, security-focused world order, including nuclear, defense, and automation suppliers with multiple ways to win.
• The importance of remaining bottom-up and valuation-driven while acknowledging regime change—using portfolio construction to manage uncertainty rather than making binary macro bets.

Host:

Andrew Johnson, CFA

Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:

Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB

Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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Wen Quan Cheong, co-manager of Mawer's emerging markets equity strategy, outlines four major themes shaping the opportunity set today. First, the "picks and shovels" of AI: upstream enablers such as advanced chip manufacturers, memory makers, and specialized chip-testing firms that are benefiting from structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chain. Second, companies that are actually converting AI investment into higher returns on capital. Third, the "Great Supply Chain Reshuffle," where national security concerns, tariffs, and "China plus one" strategies are driving a reconfiguration of strategic manufacturing infrastructure across Asia and the U.S. And finally, a broader universe of less obvious EM stories that illustrate how opportunity is evolving across regions and sectors as these forces play out.

Highlights:

• Why upstream AI enablers are seeing such powerful earnings leverage: how capacity cuts, equipment bottlenecks, and surging demand for DRAM, HBM, and NAND have flipped the memory market from oversupplied to structurally tight.
• What it takes for companies to truly convert AI investment into sustainable returns on invested capital, and why early, well-run adopters may enjoy a multi year edge.
• How shifting geopolitics, U.S. tariffs, and national security concerns are driving a "Great Supply Chain Reshuffle," from TSMC-linked clean room specialists like Actor Group supporting new fabs to Chinese manufacturers using their domestic scale and integration to expand overseas.
• Why emerging markets are more than just China and tech, with examples ranging from Saudi insurance aggregation and Vietnamese pharmacies to ship maintenance businesses with recurring revenues.

Host:

Rob Campbell, CFA

Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:

Wen Quan Cheong, CFA

Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Equity analyst Alex Romaines joins the podcast to unpack "accounting shenanigans" and why getting from reported numbers to the economic truth of a business is so critical for long-term investors. Drawing on forensic accounting frameworks, he explains how a deep grounding in accounting shapes the way he interrogates financial statements—moving beyond compliance with standards to questions of judgment, incentives, and sustainability. The conversation discusses the issue of stock-based compensation: why adding it back to "adjusted" earnings can be misleading, how dilution and buybacks can quietly transfer wealth from outside shareholders to insiders, and practical ways investors can incorporate these real costs into valuation. Alex then highlights other red flags on his radar today—from lengthening depreciation schedules on fast-changing tech hardware, to vendor financing that may inflate revenues, to the quiet return of special purpose vehicles.

Highlights:

• How a forensic accounting mindset helps investors move from reported numbers to the real economics of a business—and why that gap matters.
• Stock-based compensation as a quiet wealth transfer mechanism, and practical ways long-term investors can account for its true cost.
• The growing role of judgment in modern financial reporting, from "adjusted" earnings to the incentives shaping management's disclosures.
• Other accounting signals Alex is watching now, including depreciation assumptions, vendor financing, and the renewed use of special purpose vehicles.

Host:
Rob Campbell, CFA
Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:
Alex Romaines, CFA
Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In a world where geopolitical tension, economic inequality, and technological change are all accelerating, what does it mean to be a long‑term, bottom‑up investor? In this episode, portfolio manager Paul Moroz explores how today's regime differs from the post‑crisis "Pax Americana" era. Drawing on history—from Shakespeare to ancient debt jubilees—he connects recurring human patterns of fear, greed, and class conflicts to today's tensions. The discussion then turns to specifics around how investors must adapt in a more volatile world, and how AI is emerging both as a powerful market force and as a tool that is reshaping the day‑to‑day work of investors.

Highlights include:

• How recurring historical patterns—from Shakespeare's Coriolanus to ancient debt jubilees—shed light on today's tensions around inequality and financial repression
• How portfolio construction may need to adapt: broader diversification, smaller positions, heavy emphasis on risk management
• Why bottom‑up analysis still matters as much as ever, even when top‑down forces feel louder
• How AI's ability to let fewer people do more work could widen existing wealth divides, reshape career paths in knowledge‑based fields, and force organizations to rethink how they hire, train, and promote talent
• Why the edge in investing is shifting from gathering information to asking better questions and exercising sound human judgment

Host:

Rob Campbell, CFA

Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:

Paul Moroz,

CFA Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, we sit down with equity analyst Joshua Samuel to explore how artificial intelligence and large language models (LLMs) are fundamentally reshaping the nature of competitive advantages tied to data. Josh presents a comprehensive framework for evaluating data moats in the modern era, breaking down four critical categories that can separate lasting advantages from temporary ones. The conversation examines how companies across sectors—from FinTech to defense—are leveraging data to drive better decision making and outcomes. He also addresses the flip side: where traditional data advantages are being eroded by AI's ability to synthesize information, and why trust and execution remain crucial even amongst data advantages.

Key Highlights:

• AI systems now capture and analyze subconscious behavior patterns through clicks and scrolls, potentially knowing users better than they know themselves
• Traditional data moats in legal, medical, and scientific databases face existential threats as LLMs trained on humanity's collective knowledge can synthesize equivalent insights
• General-purpose AI can outperform specialized systems by piecing together disparate information, even without access to proprietary datasets
• In high-stakes B2B environments, established relationships and trust remain powerful defenses against AI disruption, especially where career risk is involved

• Examines Tencent as a rare example of a company that combines all four dimensions of a strong data moat—proprietary, continuously refreshed, high‑dimensional, and closed‑loop data—spanning social, payments, commerce, and mini‑program ecosystems.

Host:
Rob Campbell, CFA
Portfolio Manager

Guest:
Joshua Samuel, CFA
Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow and Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas examine the forces reshaping markets in the fourth quarter. From central banks navigating the shift toward policy normalization to equity leadership rotating beyond mega-cap AI stocks, they explore how a resilient but slowing economy is influencing investment decisions. The conversation covers evolving credit conditions, geopolitical developments including recent events in Venezuela, and the portfolio adjustments being made as valuations rise and late-cycle dynamics emerge.

Key highlights:

• Global growth is moderating, labour markets are softening, and inflation is easing, giving central banks room to shift from restrictive policy toward gradual normalization.

• Steeper yield curves and very tight credit spreads leave bond investors with decent starting yields but limited compensation for taking extra credit or liquidity risk—arguing against "reaching for yield."

• Equity leadership is broadening beyond a narrow group of U.S. megacap AI winners, with stronger participation from cyclicals, financials, and international markets—a healthier backdrop for diversified, active investors.

• The AI boom is increasingly about infrastructure—semiconductors, memory, power, and data centres—raising questions about sustainability, profitability, and bubblelike dynamics in parts of the ecosystem.

• Geopolitical shifts, including U.S. intervention in Venezuela and a move toward more transactional "spheres of influence," reinforce the case for disciplined, diversified, valuation driven positioning and only incremental asset mix adjustments.

Host:
Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA
Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:
Stu Morrow, CFA
Investment Counsellor

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

From lingering "Liberation Day" tariff fears and a shift toward a more pro-growth federal policy stance to changing leadership within key sectors, Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford unpacks what moved markets for Canadian equities in 2025. He explains how this backdrop influenced recent positioning in the Canadian equity portfolio, including adjustments within energy, banks, and gold. The conversation then turns to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and its implications for Canadian oil: how potential increases in Venezuelan heavy crude could affect Western Canadian differentials, why integrated producers may be relatively better positioned, and the role of TMX export capacity in supporting basin pricing. Stepping back, Mark explores the move toward a more transactional, spheres of influence world and how the team is incorporating this evolving U.S.–Canada dynamic into portfolio construction through diversified, incremental shifts rather than binary macro bets.

Key Highlights:

• In 2025, Canadian equity returns were shaped less by the initial "Liberation Day" tariff shock and more by how markets digested that risk over time alongside a domestic pivot toward pro-growth policy—forces that helped support energy, commodities, and especially the banks.

• Within financials, Canadian banks—TD in particular—saw improving fundamentals as credit conditions held up, wealth and capital markets businesses performed well, and a more growth oriented regulatory stance supported competitiveness.

• In energy, the team tilted toward integrated producers like Suncor and trimmed more differential sensitive exposure such as Canadian Natural, balancing the long-term risk of higher Venezuelan heavy crude supply against the offsetting support of TMX export capacity.

• The team selectively added to gold producers, seeing attractive unit economics and reasonable valuations, and viewing gold as a useful diversifier in a world of geopolitical tension, dedollarization talk, and looser fiscal discipline.

• Stepping back, Mark frames Venezuela and trade policy within a broader shift toward transactional spheres of influence and "mercantilist" great power politics—arguing for diversified, incremental positioning changes rather than binary macro bets or anchoring portfolios to any single geopolitical outcome.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Portfolio Manager

Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/