Before buying, let's wait for the sales. (Davide Serra)

Over the last few months the global economy has held up thanks to strong U.S. fiscal stimulus and widespread deficits elsewhere, but for the first time public debt worldwide is around 100% of global GDP, reducing governments’ room to respond to future shocks.

Nearly all asset classes look expensive and U.S. rate cuts are already priced in; moreover, Washington appears to be overstimulating the economy, partly with an eye on next year’s midterm elections.

There is also exuberance around AI: to justify current valuations, roughly $2 trillion of additional revenues would be needed by 2030—an implausibly large figure compared with the current revenues of the “Magnificent Seven.”

This and other takeaways in Davide Serra's (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) latest analysis.