Davos 2026: Key Markets and Macro Implications (Davide Serra)

The central macro message from the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos is that the US may be moving away from the post-war order, forcing other nations to reinvest in defence and economic resilience.

Global growth remains strong, supported by large fiscal deficits, but that also keeps the door open to a resurgence of inflation. AI-led capex is significant and may be outpacing the realistic revenue opportunity by 2030, which could challenge current market pricing. Investors are also leaning further into global diversification, especially given a more unpredictable US policy backdrop and expectations for a weaker dollar.

We favour financials on yield-curve dynamics and operational leverage from early AI adoption, and we see gold as increasingly supported by central-bank demand and the search for politically independent reserves.

Listen to Davide Serra's notes from the World Economic Forum 2026.