In this episode of the HCM Market Brief, Doug Johnson and Dan Rinck break down two of the most important—and widely discussed—forces currently influencing markets: escalating tensions involving Iran and growing scrutiny around private credit and private equity. While headlines have been intense, the conversation focuses on separating noise from signal and identifying what truly matters for investors.

Dan Rink discusses how the recent U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran has increased market volatility, particularly through rising oil prices due to risks around the Strait of Hormuz, but notes that the overall impact on U.S. markets has so far been limited with the S&P 500 down less than 1%. Drawing on historical precedent, he emphasizes that geopolitical conflicts rarely derail long-term market performance and suggests investors stay disciplined, as strong earnings, broad sector participation, and potential rebounds in software stocks could support equities if inflation and oil prices stabilize.

Doug Johnson CFA and Dan Rinck discuss how AI disruption fears are causing indiscriminate selling in software, financials, logistics, and other sectors, leading to sharp rotations into areas like staples, industrials, energy, and emerging markets—often disconnected from actual earnings fundamentals.

The hosts explore potential long-term economic effects of AI, including job displacement, deflation vs. inflation dynamics, government intervention, and consumer demand—while noting that current earnings growth, stable inflation, solid jobs data, and range-bound interest rates remain supportive of equities.

Finally, the conversation emphasizes maintaining diversification across growth, value, small caps, international, emerging markets, and alternative assets (such as commodities or gold), arguing that disciplined allocation—not headline-driven reactions—is the appropriate strategy amid uncertainty.