Processing uncertainty in real time

Volatility has returned, and markets are recalibrating risk premia as new sources of uncertainty emerge across oil, inflation expectations, private credit and the AI investment cycle.

In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler speaks with Ajay Rajadhyaksha to break down how markets are processing this uncertainty, and the transmission mechanisms that matter most for the medium-term path.

They explore how investors are interpreting elevated oil prices and what sustained higher prices could mean for inflation expectations, as well as why private credit concerns remain slow moving rather than systemic. They also examine the structural tailwinds from AI, where hyperscaler CapEx and breakthrough adoption rates may continue to anchor long run productivity and growth.

As the conversation tracks the market reaction to the escalating conflict in Iran and other recent headline shifts, Ronnie and Ajay focus on the observable indicators and signals shaping the medium-term outlook.

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