Rent Growth Is Slowing. But the Smart Money Isn't Panicking

The February rent numbers are in and the headline is going to scare some people.

National multifamily rent growth slowed to 1.2% year-over-year, down from 1.4% in January. Annualized monthly growth is sitting at 0.2%.

But context is the difference between panicking and positioning.

In this episode, we break down:

• Rents have increased for 32 straight months with zero national declines
• 86.6% of metros still posting positive YoY growth
• Florida and Texas struggling under oversupply: North Port (-5.3%), Cape Coral (-5.0%), Austin still 18.2% below its 2022 peak
• National vacancy hit 7.3% in December
• Virginia Beach (+5.9%), San Francisco (+5.9%), and Chicago (+5.4%) leading the other side of the split
• Northeast projected at 4-5% annual rent growth; Midwest on a 3-4.5% path
• Sun Belt looking at 1-2% at best until supply is absorbed
• Yardi Matrix projecting 450,000 deliveries in 2026, a 24% drop from 595,000 in 2025
• 2027 deliveries dropping further to ~416,000
• New construction starts for rental housing down 70% from peak
• Yardi forecasting national rent growth to hit 2% by 2027
• Why disciplined operators buying now, at the bottom of the rent growth cycle, will look like geniuses 18 months from now

Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 Equity
Rise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.
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Disclaimer: This podcast is powered by AI. The hosts are not licensed financial advisors, attorneys, or CPAs. All content is intended as a starting point for your own research and due diligence. Consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.