Syria’s Fragile Transition (w/ Malik al-Abdeh)

It has been more than a year since the Assad regime was overthrown and the Syrian Transitional Government has held together despite provincial demands for autonomy, enormous economic challenges, Israeli occupation and military strikes, and pressure from the wars in Iran and Lebanon. In some respects, Ahmad al-Shara‘a is making substantive efforts to create a more inclusive and representative political system. However, he and his team are also replicating many of the same structures of governance that existed under Assad rule, this time in ways that favor the Sunni community and early supporters of Hayat Tahrir al-Shams in particular. Those structures are a natural reflection of the way Syrian society is constructed, and the country is constantly under the threat of falling back into an oppressive dictatorship. The question is whether al-Shara‘a can find a sustainable formula for governance that provides more than token representation for all communities, even if real power resides with his core Sunni constituency.

The Transitional Government has carefully navigated its regional relationships, carefully managing Turkish expectations, leaning heavily on support from Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf allies, and avoiding entanglements in Lebanon and Iraq. Damascus has gone to great lengths to make sure that regional and international partners have a direct line and frequent reassurances about Syria’s goodwill and positive intentions. The current Israeli offensive against Hizballah in Lebanon now offers an opportunity for al-Shara‘a to demonstrate his government’s willingness to help regional allies further isolate Iran and degrade the capabilities of its proxies.

In this episode, CFTNI Senior Fellow Joshua Yaphe speaks with Malik al-Abdeh, Chief Editor of Syria in Transition, a monthly magazine providing in-depth research and analysis. He is also Managing Director of Conflict Mediation Solutions, a London-based consultancy focused on peace-building in the Middle East.

Music by Ashot Danielyan from Pixabay.