The Trump administration finds itself in a trap. They can't declare victory and go home unless the Iranians agree to conclude this war, and the Iranians at this point have no incentive to strike a deal. Trump and the American public don't have the stomach for a long war, and thus Iran can win by not losing. How should Canada respond to Trump's provocations? Andrew believes there is a madman in the White House who wants to impose his will on us in various ways. The government in Ottawa needs to be planning for the various ways we will be facing highly unconventional tactics from this U.S. government. And if things really break down after the midterms, and America descends further down the path to dictatorship, there will be knockoff effects to neighbouring countries that Canada would be wise to prepare for.

Rudyard and Janice believe we have entered into a critcial moment in this war and it is playing out in the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict is now about energy: who controls the flow of energy and who can better withstand the pain of higher energy prices. We are going to see a turning point this week; if neither side is willing to back down, the only outcome in this story is escalation. Meanwhile U.S. marines are currently on their way to the region suggesting the U.S. might attempt to cut off Iran's capacity to export oil by taking over Kharg Island. How will China, a major consumer of Iranian oil, react to this provocation? Why is this good news for Russia? And will the inflation of oil prices reshape Donald Trump's prospects in the upcoming midterms?

Rudyard and Janice unpack the big surprises in the war from this week, specifically Iran's escalating attacks against Gulf States beyond their military bases, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which is disrupting the world's oil supply. Did the U.S. fundamentally misunderstand their opponent before heading into this conflict? Why did this administration not understand that Iran is not Venezuela? This president relies on his gut to make important decisions, and now it will be hard for Trump to end the war without an agreement from Iran and U.S. concessions to the Islamist regime. In the second half of the program Rudyard and Janice discuss the big winners so far. There is an increased demand for Russian natural gas and there are less missile interceptors flowing to Ukraine. The U.S. is overextended at home and abroad. Could Russia and China use Iran as a way to undermine the U.S while it is vulnerable? Will this war spread beyond the Middle East?

Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.