The global real estate market has hinged its outlook of resurgence on maintaining relatively stable financing market conditions, but pressure is building up that may force global central banks to hold off on interest rate relief for longer – in turn forcing more stalls on dealmaking.

Select real estate fund managers in the US were predicting anywhere from two to four interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. However, economic pressure stemming from the Iran war is expected to dampen how the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England will approach any changes in the coming quarters.

With each central bank converging last week, commercial real estate investment managers received clear signals that any hopes for an industry rebound may need to be delayed, with interest rates holding steady and the possibility of future increases still on the table.

In the US real estate market, the ever-present maturity wall is looming and asset owners and sponsors are finding themselves re-sourcing debt at a significant premium to the days of low to no interest rate pressure. Across the US market, there is an estimated $936 billion of maturing loans due this year – an almost 20 percent jump compared to 2025 according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The commercial mortgage-backed securities market, as an example, has an estimated $76.6 billion of debt due to mature in 2026 with extension options wearing thin.

The road ahead is by no means smooth for institutional real estate investment managers, and global central banks’ next response to macroeconomic pressure could determine if 2026 will truly be the year of the fix as market participants have postulated.

PERE podcast host Lucy Scott sits down with Real Estate Capital Europe's editor Daniel Cunningham and PERE EMEA editor Charlotte D’Souza to catch-up on the insights from this year’s MIPIM conference in Cannes.

Join the team as they discuss how the US and Israel war on Iran – which was into its 11th day as delegates arrived for the annual event – was affecting sentiment and hear their thoughts on whether market participants see the crisis as likely to derail real estate’s recovery.

Daniel and Charlotte also provide their feedback on capital flows, gathered from dozens of meetings held with senior managers and lenders over the course of the week. Find out why investors are seeking to commit to commingled funds, showing preference for club deals, joint ventures and separate accounts, and how, on the debt side, lenders are faring as they continue to compete for deals.

This episode is sponsored by Deutsche Pfandbriefbank

In recent years, alternative lenders have satisfied an increasing proportion of the European property market’s financing needs. But banks still account for the lion’s share of activity. In this episode of The PERE Podcast, Duncan Pearson and Charles Balch, managing directors at Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (pbb), explore the new avenues for cooperation between the different classes of lender.

They argue that today, both banks and debt funds are established as essential and complementary elements of the lending ecosystem, with the relationship between them evolving beyond simple rivalry.

Pearson explains the rationale behind pbb’s Originate and Cooperate program, which promotes collaboration between the bank and alternative finance providers. He suggests that the initiative will lead to more sustainable capital structures and lower financing costs for borrower clients, while enabling the bank and its partner lenders to access a wider range of business opportunities.

The lending environment has changed, notes Balch, so banks need to position their balance sheets to meet the needs of the new cycle, serving a wide range of borrowers, who in turn are seeking to make real estate assets fit to meet the rapidly evolving requirements of today’s end users.

The pair conclude that while 2026 is unlikely to be a “soaraway” year, and financing remains expensive for transitional projects, liquidity is beginning to return to European real estate markets, bringing with it improved prospects for transaction activity.