The Per-Capita Recession, 4% Mortgages, and Why 'Wait and See' is the Only Strategy

We are officially in a per-capita recession, meaning the average person in the UK is getting steadily poorer, despite the headline vanity metrics trying to suggest otherwise . In this week's agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup, we cut through the noise of the mainstream headlines to deliver the unvarnished reality of the market . Mortgage rates are all over the place, with the potential of rates being cut in the US while being raised in the UK . As Mohamed El-Erian points out, "We are navigating a global economy that is structurally different, not just cyclically delayed. The old playbooks will not work" . If your business model is built on waiting for cheaper debt, you need to change the model or move on . Grab your black armbands, because we are diving deep . In this episode, we cover: Macro Headwinds & Trumponomics: We discuss the ongoing war, the intense volatility in the oil market, and the US Trade Representative's investigation into 60 major economies for "forced labour" and "manufacturing overcapacity" . The Illusion of Growth: We break down the latest GDP Growth report, which printed 0% for growth in January, and explain why the 0.1% uptick in Q4 2025 masks underlying weakness . Property Market Reality Check: A deep dive into the RICS Residential Market Report and Hometrack's Rental Market Index . We explore why rental supply is still 23% below pre-pandemic levels and why the Buy to Let sector represented just 8.4% of gross mortgage advances in Q4 2025 . The Ground Rent Farce: We expose how the proposed £250 cap on ground rents will inadvertently deliver an estimated £8.7 billion windfall to property investors rather than helping owner-occupiers . Demand Support & The SME Crisis: An analysis of the LPDF and Savills report on introducing demand support, and why SME developers are capturing an increasingly small share of the new build market . Gilts & Swaps: The 5-year gilt yield closed the week at 4.35%, and we explain why the next move the Bank of England makes might actually be a rate hike . Links & Resources: Our next Property Business Workshop is selling fast! Join us on Wednesday 22nd April in Central Manchester to discuss tax, risk, deal structuring, and exit options . Secure your tickets here: www.tinyurl.com/pbwten Keep Calm, ALWAYS listen to or read the Supplement, and Carry On .