In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quantify some impacts on inflation and growth estimates, and map a path forward for the ECB and BoE.

1. Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
2. Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
3. George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circularity, driving credit spreads wider. The New Circularity was initiated by new AI apps hitting software equity valuations and credit spreads, which in turn is feeding into concerns over vehicles exposed to that widening, namely the Broadly Syndicated loan market, the Private Credit market, BDCs and even Insurance Companies. Valuation declines have in turn driven redemption requests which has placed more pressure on credit spreads

Participants:

1. Jason Mandel (Desk Strategy), Head of Leveraged Finance Desk Strategy
2. Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
3. Steven Denny (Desk Strategy), Head of US IG Credit Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US Tariff framework is changing. China is preparing for its National People’s Congress. Latin America is entering a period of political volatility. We give our take on the current EM environment.

Participants:

1. Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
2. Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
3. Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
4. Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts